Accurate identification of economic recessions in a timely fashion is a major macroeconomic challenge. The so-called Sahm recession indicator (Sahm, 2019), one of the most reliable early detectors of the […]

Macroeconomic news announcements are elaborate and multi-dimensional. We consider a framework in which jumps in asset prices around announcements reflect both the response to observed surprises in headline numbers and […]

A new method of measuring poverty in the United States—based on families’ spending and easily accessible resources—finds that about eight million more people lived in poverty in 2019 than reported […]