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The majority of my research is focused on econometrics, empirical macroeconomics and empirical finance, but my interests span a wide range of topics, including forecasting in a data-rich environment, the high-frequency effects of news announcements, term structure analysis and the econometrics of weak identification.
"Forecasting Interest Rates with Shifting Endpoints" (with Dick van Dijk, Siem Jan Koopman and Michel van der Wel)
"The Economics of Options-Implied Inflation Probability Density Functions" (joint with Yuriy Kitsul)
"Forecasting Inflation" (with Jon Faust): Draft for Handbook of Forecasting.
"Credit Spreads as Predictors of Real-Time Economic Activity: A Bayesian Model Averaging Approach" (with Jon Faust, Simon Gilchrist and Egon Zakrajsek).
"Risk Premia in the 8:30 Economy" (with Jon Faust).
Material For Published Papers
180.367 - Investments and Portfolio Management
This is an introductory course in investments. The course is broken into four parts. The first part covers the fundamental concepts of asset returns, risk, and risk-aversion, and then studies how investors should optimally choose their portfolios given the observed patterns of risk and return. The second part of the course studies the reverse question: given how investors choose their portfolios, what are the equilibrium patterns of risk and expected return in financial markets: in other words, what is the expected return that various types of assets must earn to compensate investors for bearing their risk. The second question is studied in the context of two theories of returns: the capital asset pricing model and arbitrage pricing theory. The third part of the course studies the empirical evidence for and against the equilibrium theories of asset returns, with an emphasis on the evidence in support and against the efficient markets hypothesis. The fourth and final part of the course studies three classes of assets in more detail. The topics that are covered include models of equity valuation, bond valuation and hedging, and option valuation and hedging.
180.608 -- Macroeconometrics II
This course will cover a range of topics in time series econometrics and empirical macroeconomics and finance that arise in current research. This course should be taken by people with an interest in either empirical macro or empirical finance and is likely to be helpful to a graduate student with time-series empirical interests, especially in searching for a dissertation topic.