I am a professor of economics at JHU and co-chair of the National Bureau of Economic Research’s working group on the Aggregate Implications of Microeconomic Consumption Behavior. Originally from Knoxville, Tennessee, I received my A.B. in Economics from Harvard University in 1986 and a Ph.D. from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology in 1990. After graduating from M.I.T., I worked at the Federal Reserve Board in Washington DC, where I prepared forecasts for consumer expenditure. I moved to Johns Hopkins University in 1995 and also spent 1997-98 working at the Council of Economic Advisors in Washington, where I analyzed Social Security reform proposals, tax and pension policy, and bankruptcy reform. Aside from my current work at Hopkins and the NBER, I am also an associate editor at the Review of Economics and Statistics,(ReStat) the Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, (JBES) and the Berkeley Electronic Journal of Macroeconomics (BEJM).

My research has primarily focused on consumption and saving behavior, with an emphasis on reconciling the empirical evidence from both microeconomic and macroeconomic sources with theoretical models. (In addition to articles in economic journals, I’ve authored Encyclopedia Britannica articles on consumption related topics.) My most recent research has focused on the dynamics of expectations formation, particularly on how expectations reflect households’ learning from each other and from experts. This focus flows from a career-long interest in consumer sentiment and its determinants.

I live in Columbia, MD with my wife, Jennifer Manning. I credit my father for sparking my interest in economics at an early age: He recently retired from a career as professor of economics at the University of Tennessee, where he taught industrial organization for many years.

"A Tractable Model of Buffer Stock Saving." Christopher D. Carroll and Patrick Toche. NBER Working Paper Number 15265 August 2009. At http://www.econ2.jhu.edu/people/ccarroll/papers/ctDiscrete.pdf

"A Tractable Model of Precautionary Reserves, Net Foreign Assets, or Sovereign Wealth Funds." Christopher D. Carroll and Olivier Jeanne. NBER Working Paper Number 15228 August 2009

"Liquidity Constraints and Precautionary Saving." Christopher D. Carroll and Miles S. Kimball. Manuscript, Johns Hopkins University 2005. At http://www.econ2.jhu.edu/people/ccarroll/papers/liquidRevised.pdf

"Theoretical Foundations of Buffer Stock Saving." Christopher D. Carroll. Manuscript, Department of Economics, Johns Hopkins University 2011. Latest version available at http://www.econ2.jhu.edu/people/ccarroll/papers/BufferStockTheory.pdf

"Recent Stock Declines: Panic or the Purge of ‘Irrational Exuberance’?." Christopher D. Carroll. The Economists’ Voice 5 2008. At: http://www.bepress.com/ev/vol5/iss7/art6

"Precautionary Saving and Precautionary Wealth." Christopher D. Carroll and Miles S. Kimball. Palgrave Dictionary of Economics and Finance, 2nd Ed. 2007. Available at http://www.econ2.jhu.edu/people/ccarroll/PalgravePrecautionary.pdf

"The Method of Endogenous Gridpoints for Solving Dynamic Stochastic Optimization Problems." Christopher D. Carroll. Economics Letters pages 312-320 September 2006a. Paper and software available at http://www.econ2.jhu.edu/people/ccarroll/EndogenousArchive.zip or http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.econlet.2005.09.013

"The Epidemiology of Macroeconomic Expectations." Christopher D. Carroll. In Larry Blume and Steven Durlauf, editors, The Economy as an Evolving Complex System, III. Oxford University Press 2006b. At http://www.econ2.jhu.edu/people/ccarroll/epidemiologySFI.pdf

"Unemployment Risk and Precautionary Wealth: Evidence from Households’ Balance Sheets." Christopher D. Carroll, Karen E. Dynan, and Spencer S. Krane. Review of Economics and Statistics 85(3) August 2003. Available at http://www.econ2.jhu.edu/people/ccarroll/krynoll.pdf

"Macroeconomic Expectations of Households and Professional Forecasters." Christopher D. Carroll. Quarterly Journal of Economics 118 (1):269-298 2003. At http://www.econ2.jhu.edu/people/ccarroll/epidemiologyQJE.pdf

"Portfolios of the Rich." Christopher D. Carroll. In Household Portfolios: Theory and Evidence. MIT Press Cambridge, MA 2002. Available at http://www.econ2.jhu.edu/people/ccarroll/richportfolios.pdf

"A Theory of the Consumption Function, With and Without Liquidity Constraints." Christopher D. Carroll. Journal of Economic Perspectives 15(3):23-46 Summer 2001a. http://www.econ2.jhu.edu/people/ccarroll/ATheoryv3JEP.pdf (as published) http://www.econ2.jhu.edu/people/ccarroll/ATheoryv3NBER.pdf (more rigorous), http://www.econ2.jhu.edu/people/ccarroll/ATheoryMath.zip (software archive)

"Death to the Log-Linearized Consumption Euler Equation! (And Very Poor Health to the Second-Order Approximation)." Christopher D. Carroll. Advances in Macroeconomics 1(1): Article 6 2001b. Available at http://www.econ2.jhu.edu/people/ccarroll/death.pdf

"Individual Learning About Consumption." Todd M. Allen and Christopher D. Carroll. Macroeconomic Dynamics 5(4) 2001. At http://www.econ2.jhu.edu/people/ccarroll/IndivLearningAboutC.pdf

"Risky Habits’ and the Marginal Propsensity to Consume Out of Permanent Income." Christopher D. Carroll. International Economic Journal 14(4):1-41 2000a. Available at http://www.econ2.jhu.edu/people/ccarroll/riskyhabits.pdf

"Solving Consumption Models with Multiplicative Habits." Christopher D. Carroll. Economics Letters 68(1):67-77 2000b. Available at http://www.econ2.jhu.edu/people/ccarroll/HabitsEconLett.pdf

"Saving and Growth with Habit Formation." Christopher D. Carroll, Jody R. Overland, and David N. Weil. American Economic Review 90(3):341-355 June 2000. Available at http://www.econ2.jhu.edu/people/ccarroll/AERHabits.pdf

"Requiem for the Representative Consumer? Aggregate Implications of Microeconomic Consumption Behavior." Christopher D. Carroll. American Economic Review, Papers and Proceedings 90(2):110-115 May 2000c. Available at http://www.econ2.jhu.edu/people/ccarroll/RequiemFull.pdf

"Why Do the Rich Save So Much?." Christopher D. Carroll. In Joel B. Slemrod, editor, Does Atlas Shrug? The Economic Consequences of Taxing the Rich. Harvard University Press 2000d. Available at http://www.econ2.jhu.edu/people/ccarroll/Why.pdf

"Does Cultural Origin Affect Saving Behavior? Evidence from Immigrants." Christopher D. Carroll, Changyong Rhee, and Byungkun Rhee. Economic Development and Cultural Change 48(1):33-50 October 1999. At http://www.econ2.jhu.edu/people/ccarroll/censave.pdf

"How Important Is Precautionary Saving?." Christopher D. Carroll and Andrew A. Samwick. Review of Economics and Statistics 80(3):410-419 August 1998. Available at http://www.econ2.jhu.edu/people/ccarroll/howbig.pdf

"Comparison Utility in a Growth Model." Christopher D. Carroll, Jody R. Overland, and David N. Weil. Journal of Economic Growth 2(4):339-367 December 1997. Available at http://www.econ2.jhu.edu/people/ccarroll/compare.pdf

"The Nature of Precautionary Wealth." Christopher D. Carroll and Andrew A. Samwick. Journal of Monetary Economics 40(1):41-71 1997. Available at http://www.econ2.jhu.edu/people/ccarroll/nature.pdf

"Unemployment Expectations, Jumping (S,s) Triggers, and Household Balance Sheets." Christopher D. Carroll and Wendy E. Dunn. In Benjamin S. Bernanke and Julio J. Rotemberg, editors, NBER Macroeconomics Annual, 1997 pages 165-229. MIT Press Cambridge, MA 1997. At http://www.econ2.jhu.edu/people/ccarroll/macroann.pdf, source codes at http://www.econ2.jhu.edu/people/ccarroll/papers/CarrollDunn1.zip, http://www.econ2.jhu.edu/people/ccarroll/papers/CarrollDunn2.zip, http://www.econ2.jhu.edu/people/ccarroll/papers/CarrollDunn3.zip

"Buffer Stock Saving and the Life Cycle/Permanent Income Hypothesis." Christopher D. Carroll. Quarterly Journal of Economics CXII(1):1-56 1997. Available at http://www.econ2.jhu.edu/people/ccarroll/BSLCPIH.zip

"On the Concavity of the Consumption Function." Christopher D. Carroll and Miles S. Kimball. Econometrica 64(4):981-992 1996. available at http://www.econ2.jhu.edu/people/ccarroll/concavity.pdf

"Does Consumer Sentiment Forecast Household Spending? If So, Why?." Christopher D. Carroll, Jeffrey C. Fuhrer, and David W. Wilcox. American Economic Review 84(5):1397-1408 1994a. Available at http://www.econ2.jhu.edu/people/ccarroll/SentAERCarrollFuhrerWilcox.pdf

"Saving and Growth: A Reinterpretation." Christopher D. Carroll and David N. Weil. Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy 40:133-192 June 1994. Available at http://www.econ2.jhu.edu/people/ccarroll/CarrollWeilSavingAndGrowth.pdf

"Are There Cultural Effects on Saving? Some Cross-Sectional Evidence." Christopher D. Carroll, Changyong Rhee, and Byungkun Rhee. The Quarterly Journal of Economics CIX (3):685-700 August 1994b. At http://www.econ2.jhu.edu/people/ccarroll/crr-culture-qje.pdf

"How Does Future Income Affect Current Consumption?." Christopher D. Carroll. The Quarterly Journal of Economics CIX(1):111-148 1994. Available at http://www.econ2.jhu.edu/people/ccarroll/howdoesfuture.pdf

"The Decline in U.S. Saving." Christopher D. Carroll. Forum for Applied Research and Public Policy 8(4) 1993

"The Buffer-Stock Theory of Saving: Some Macroeconomic Evidence." Christopher D. Carroll. Brookings Papers on Economic Activity 1992(2):61-156 1992. Available at http://www.econ2.jhu.edu/people/ccarroll/BufferStockBPEA.pdf

"Why is U.S. National Saving So Low?." Lawrence H. Summers and Christopher D. Carroll. Brookings Papers on Economic Activity 1987(2):607-636 1987. Available at http://www.econ2.jhu.edu/people/ccarroll/NatSavSoLow.pdf

"Why Have Private Saving Rates in the US and Canada Diverged?." Christopher D. Carroll and Lawrence H. Summers. Journal of Monetary Economics 20(2):249-279 1987. Available at http://www.econ2.jhu.edu/people/ccarroll/papers/CarrollSummersJME.pdf

"Consumption Growth Parallels Income Growth: Some New Evidence." Christopher D. Carroll and Lawrence H. Summers. In B. Douglas Bernheim and John B. Shoven, editors, National Saving and Economic Performance. Chicago University Press Chicago 1991. Available at http://www.econ2.jhu.edu/people/ccarroll/papers/CParallelsY.pdf

Economics 604 -- Graduate Macroeconomics
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