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JHU Department of Economics
440 Mergenthaler Hall
3400 N. Charles Street
Baltimore, MD 21218

410-516-7601 phone
410-516-7600 fax

180.336 -- The Art and Science of Economic Forecasts

 

Professor: Dr. Robert J. Barbera

Office Hours: TBA

E-mail: robert.barbera@ITG.com                                 

Office Telephone #: 914-312-2390

Office Fax:  914-312-2493

 

Teaching Assistant: Julia Driessen

Office Hours: Monday, 11am-12pm; Tuesday, 8:30am-9:30am,  Mergenthaler 466

E-mail: jdrie85@yahoo.com

Telephone #: 443-310-5806

 

Course Objectives:

1.  To attain a rigorous understanding of U.S. macroeconomic barometers (Issues:  theoretical concepts, real world representations, measurement errors/revisions and cyclical fluctuations/secular patterns).

2.  To become familiar with the pattern of economic news and the shaping and reshaping of the consensus economic view.

3.  To come to appreciate the interplay between long-term trends, economic policies, financial market fluctuations, and exogenous shocks.

4.  To learn techniques for Separating Signal from Noise and the Risks/Rewards Inherent in Thinking and Forecasting Outside the Box.     

 

Downloads:

Updated Course Outline

Overview & Consensus

Syllabus & Handout

Lecture 2

Lecture 3

Lecture 4

Lecture 5

Tables for Lecture 6

Graphs for Lecture 6

Guide to Exam 1

Using Term Structure

Lecture 8

Lecture 9

Appendix By Sheriff Khalifa -Lecture 8 & 9

Lecture 10

Lecture 11

Lecture 12 Outline

 

Readings:

Flow of Funds

Great Expectations

Pulse of the Numbers

Is There A Core of Practical Macro That We Should All Believe? Blinder, AEA

The Yield Curve and Predicting Recessions, Wright, FRB, 2006

Four Out of Four Indicators Are In Recession Territory, Ergo…, Barbera, 01/01

Ray Fair Model

Behavioral Macroeconomics and Macroeconomic Behavior, Akerlof

The Missing Motivation in Macroeconomics, Akerlof, AEA address, 2007

Short-Run Fluctuations, David Romer, Berkley, 8/02

Boom, Gloom, And Excess, Barbera, International Economy, 2004

The Economy According To Joyce, Barbera, Wall Street Journal 1992

Did Giambastista Vico Forecast 9/11?, Barbera

It Just Happened Again, R.J. Barbera, Paul DeRosa, Minsky Conference

Dear Dr. Freud, Barbera 3/00

A Minsky/Wicksell Modified Taylor Rule

Wicksellian Model